Monday, September 08, 2008


The polling data is starting to reveal the consequences of last week's Republican Convention. The RealClearPolitics average for the tracking polls of September 5-7 now gives McCain a 3.2% lead.

Here are the specific polls:

CNN: Tie
USA Today/Gallup: McCain +10
Rasmussen Tracking: McCain +1
Hotline/FD Tracking: Tie
Gallup Tracking: McCain +5

I don't know about you but my email has been full of links to stories that sound like the high school gossip line -- you know, who's gonna be the prom queen, whose pregnant, with whom, etc -- the bottom line being that she-is-dumb-and-he-is-reckless. The scary stuff is really not about issue positions or qualifications but about how much like a high school election our media-driven politics have become.

It may turn out that the Republicans have grabbed the only possible winning strategy in a year when the issues work heavily against them. So far, it's clear that the soap-opera stuff has completely overwhelmed the issues.
It's surely a volatile situation but the most recent polls show that McCain-Palin strategy is anything but stupid.

The competition is now for the swing voters who tend to be the least informed and most impressionable group in the electorate. The democratic model gives us an ideal of a rational voter. But most intelligent, informed and rational citizens have already made up their minds. How could you be uncertain about where you stand unless you were politically uninformed or viewing the election as a reality show about choosing an American Idol?

The Republicans have this uncanny ability to sail forth in the billows of contradiction. They can attack celebrity status and inexperience and then use it to their advantage -- complete with an ideology that says only God could perform such a miracle.

It's possible to condemn the whole process as like selecting the King and Queen of the Prom but it's more important to remember that they get chosen by winning an election.

No comments: